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CLEEN Foundation's Election Security Threat Assessment: Towards 2015 Elections
The CLEEN Foundation held their Public Presentation of the 10th Security Threat Assessments (STA) on Monday. This edition analyzes key trends that could pose a threat ahead of the rescheduled elections coming up on March 28, 2015 and April 11, 2015. The STA provides an analysis of key happenings in the country in the run up to the elections. Although initially designed to provide updates of key trends in February 2015, efforts were made to provide key updates up to March 15, 2015.
The most shocking discovery dealt with the potential spots for violence in Nigeria. Of the 36 states and the FCT, only 9 states have reported no deaths and have been electoral violence free.
States highlighted in red are states that have recorded deaths and violence. Amber indicates states where electoral violence has occurred, but no deaths on record. States highlighted in green have not recorded any electoral violence issues or death.
RED: NC – Benue, Nasarawa, Niger and Plateau; NE – Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, NW – Kaduna, Kano and Katsina SS – Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta; SW – Lagos, Ekiti and Oyo SE – Abia, Ebonyi
AMBER: NC – Kogi, and Kwara; NW – Zamfara, Sokoto, SE – Imo and Anambra; SW –
GREEN: NW- Jigawa and Kebbi, SW – Ondo and Osun; SE – Enugu SS- Edo, Cross
River and Akwa Ibom; NC Federal Capital Territory, Abuja
The report also identifies key risk factors during this election which are the following:
- Perceived partisanship of security institutions
- Electoral manipulation and vote rigging
- Boko Haram Insurgency
Overall, the report provides updates on the following indicator areas:
- Distribution of Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVC)
- Campaign Hate Speech and Acts of Violence
- Response to Identified Threats to Election by Security Agencies
- Protection of the Franchise of Internally Displaced Persons
- Emergence of Alternate Security Arrangements